By: Dan Hueber –
It would seem that the only prominent news to look at is the grain/soy markets are updates from Argentina. It is not that these are not important in the overall outlook but as I have suggested previously, we have been talking about it for so long now, it may be slowly but surely losing it market bite. Both the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Exchange have again reduced projections. The first now predicts a 42 MMT bean crop and 34 MMT corn crop while the latter is calling for a 40 MMT bean output and 32 MMT for corn. As the official US point of reference, the recent USDA estimate pegged beans at 47 and corn at 36 so one should be able to safely assume there will be downward adjustments ahead.
For many of you this may be little more than a curiosity, but Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency markets are in the news again this morning. While I have no personal stake in this market, I find it fascinating as it is probably only once or twice in a lifetime that one can witness a true a classic bubble in an emerging market, and to date, this one has unfolded in true to form fashion.
While we have not quite reached back down to the post peak lows that were recorded in early February but has been under pressure for the majority of this month and are flirting with the $8,000 level once again. Keep in mind that the fevered peak was reached back in mid-December at $19,892 which was followed by a low of $5,873 (70% break) two months later. I suspect there were more than a few investors/speculators that breathed a deep sigh of relief when this market bounced back north of the $11,000 mark, believing that worst was now behind them, but the optimism may be premature if one is to believe that this will follow the classic bubble blow off pattern.
While the price for Bitcoin has not been updated, here is chart that was published in the Financial Times about a month ago, plotting its path against historical bubble patterns and so far, we appear to have remained on track. If this continues to be the case, it would suggest that the crypto currency market(s) have a long and depressing road ahead.
Of course, history does not have to repeat itself but as they say, it will often rhyme.
