I do not know about you, but I just cannot seem to shake this feeling that I am an hour behind in everything I have tried to accomplish this morning. When I look at my watch, it appears to read “standard time,” and all markets have opened at their appointed hour, yet something seems amiss. For those of you who would enjoy a little trivia, Daily Saving Time, which ended over this past weekend, I understand was not really conceived with farmers in mind, as many of us have undoubtedly heard. Instead, it was initially dreamt up (no pun intended) by some Canadians on the north shore of Lake Superior but came into broader use in Germany in 1916 in an effort to conserve coal during the War. It did not become a standard in the United States until 1966.
We have a mixed bag of price activity as we begin this first full week of November with the grain under minor pressure and soy trying to maintain a little rebound primarily led by strength in bean oil. Oil has been supported as of late by the Palm Oil market, which has rallied over 30% as production is projected to drop 2 to 3 MMT this year to due to weather issues. Providing additional support this morning was a report from Strategie Grains that planting of winter rapeseed in the EU will fall below the 5-year average.
Still nothing official concerning Phase 1 of a U.S./China trade agreement or a rescheduling of when President could meet face to face to sign such a deal, but chatter from Washington has been encouraging. Late last week, President Trump said good progress was being made, and on Friday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated that this phase was “in good shape,” and he expected it could be signed by Mid-November. In the meantime, China appears to be doing all it can to lock up protein supplies around the globe. This morning they have removed a ban on poultry products from Spain and Slovakia and have approved seven more plants in Brazil to export pork offal.
Managed speculative money continues to like the long side of soybeans and the short side of corn. For the seventh week in a row, they have purchased beans and no stand long 72,325 contracts in futures and options. This is the most significant long position they have held since June of 2018. During the week, they sold another 9,282 contracts and are now short 85,337 contracts.
Showers have finally arrived in parts of eastern Australia, with some areas reporting as much as 4 inches over the weekend. Not what you could consider a drought breaker just yet, but certainly a welcome relief for those on the receiving end.
With clearer weather for much of the Midwest this week, the pressure we are witnessing in corn is understandable. Still, realistically, this is little more than market “noise” as we await more concrete information as to this year’s actual crop size. I continue to maintain we will not have a solid handle until we finally reach the January reports, but this coming Friday, the USDA will issue the final production estimate for the calendar year. We should see trade estimates begin filtering in yet this afternoon.