Daily Comments


Selling has carried over into a new week in December wheat, and we have slid to lower lows for the third session in a row.  We appear to be looking at nothing more than a complex correction in the market, but with the oscillator still pointing lower, we could extend this swing a bit further to the downside.  The next level of support should be at 5.64.  Cycle counts ahead on the 16th, and the 27th.

Bears continue to control the action in KC wheat, as December futures have stabbed in a lower low overnight.  Oscillators remain negative, and there is little standing in the way of keeping this contract from sliding to the 6.30/6.25 zone once again.  Take note that the current pattern is not unlike what we witnessed between the 29th of September and the 24th of October, which ultimately led to a breakout lower.  While I do not believe that will be the case this time, there is little we can do for now but wait for a more conclusive signal.  Cycle counts line up for the 16th, and the 27th.


It really came as no surprise that December corn violated 4.68 on a close last Friday, but thus far, at least, that does not appear to have unleashed any additional selling.  Regardless, with oscillators pointed lower, bears should be in control for at least another day or so, and there should be potential to extend this slide to at least the 4.60/4.56 zone and possibly down to the 4.52/4.42 zone.  Cycle counts line up for tomorrow, which will mark 180-calendar days from the May bottom and then between the 24th/27th.

While I believe this should be in the last drive to a reaction low in March corn, we have little to suggest we have reached the final destination just yet.  With oscillators still pointed lower, bears remain in the driver’s seat for now and could try to extend this trip beneath 4.70.  Remain patient for at least another day or so.  Cycle counts line up for the 14th and the 24th/27th, and then after Thanksgiving, we will have the completion of the 2nd cycle of 90-calendar days from the June peak lining up for the 18th of December.


Beans have begun the week with strength, and seeing that January futures held at crucial support around 13.34 last week, it would suggest that bulls still have some ammunition to work with.  Whether that can ultimately develop into a 5th wave push into higher highs is yet to be determined, but the setup appears to be there.  Oscillators remain negative, so headwinds could be stiff for another day or so, but we should find out just how determined bulls are from there.  Cycle counts ahead on the 16th and the 27th, with that last date marking the completion of the 2nd cycle of 90-calendar days from the May bottom.

March beans may have completed a 4th wave correction with the trip down to the 50% retracement at 13.52 last week, and I suspect bulls are trying to gather together enough reinforcements to stage one last advance.  Oscillators should bottom within the next day or so, and once they have turned higher, they will have the wind behind them.  Overhead resistance should be encountered between 13.84 and 13.94, but extending this swing to 14.08/14.10 should be possible.  Cycle counts line up for the 16th, and the 27th.

Soy Oil

After three higher closes in a row and seeing oscillators push back into the overbought zone, it would appear this initial bounce in December bean oil has exhausted.  I continue to believe we may have a 5th wave low in place, but another test of that 49.50 to 49-cent level would not be out of line.  Cycle counts line up for today/tomorrow and the 24th.

Soy Meal

After repeated tries, the bears could not get December meal to close back below 448.40, and they appear to have given up the fight for now.  While indicators are overbought, this contract could still make a run up to test the current high at 464.20 and may even extend the swing into the 470 zone.  Cycle counts ahead on the 16th and the 27th.


December cotton has begun the week with strength, and it does appear that we stuck in a 3rdor C wave low last week.  While this initial burst could exhaust quickly, I believe there should eventually be potential for this contract to at least reach back to the 80.10 to 81.40 zone.  The next cycle count is on the 24th.

Lean Hogs

December hogs posted an outside range on Friday with a higher close but did not quite provide confirmation that we have completed this corrective swing lower.  Oscillators have slipped into the oversold zone but have yet to turn positive.  A close above 74.30 would confirm we are entering the next wave higher.  The next cycle counts lines up for the 22nd.


Live Cattle

Lower swings low again on Friday for December cattle, and it does appear we should be close to completing a 5th wave and overall 1st major swing lower from the peak set back in September.  Oscillators are oversold, but stochastics remain defensive, so we need to at least see prices stabilize for a day or so before thinking about a recovery.