Of course, it does not have the hype or publicity of the “Thrilla in Manila,” which I realize most people born after 1968 may have never heard of, but we are soon to wrap up the third round of the epic January battle between grain/soy bulls and bears. Rounds one and two went to the bulls, and while there were moments where it could have gone either way, it would appear that number three will go to the bear. If the bell were to ring right now, for the week, corn would have lost, 12-cents, wheat 27-cents, and beans 61-cents. Do keep in mind that this will have been the first lower week in the past seven for corn and beans, so it is hardly a blow-out, but it could also be a suggestion that the reigning champ may be getting a bit winded.
Even a dose of smelling salts, i.e., good weekly export sales, do not appear to have provided much help. For the week ending January 14th, we sold 1,437,600 MT or 56.6 million bushels of corn. This was basically unchanged from the previous week but 51% higher than the 4-week average and a couple hundred thousand above the top estimates. Mexico was the numero uno on the list with purchases of 588.4k MT, followed by Japan with 420.6 and then Colombia at 126k. Interestingly enough, no China is listed in corn. They made up for it with beans, though. Total sales for the current crop year in beans came in at 1,817,700 MT or 66.8 million bushels. Of this total, China bought 48% of them or 864.1k MT. Next in line was the Netherlands at 236k and then Mexico with 113.4k. On top of this, for the 2021/22 crop year, we have sales of 831,000 MT. 452k of these are marked unknown destinations, and 319k are to China. Wheat sales fell in line with expectations, coming through at 329,600 MT or 12.1 million bushels. This was 49% higher than a week ago but still 7% below the 4-week average. Indonesia was the best purchaser with 105.9k MT, followed by Japan at 76.9 and then unknown destinations with 75.5k. China did purchase 65k wheat. Looking through the rest of the list, we find China purchasing 268.5k MT of sorghum, canceling 22.3k RB of cotton, buying 232,200 whole cattle hides, 4,300 MT of beef, and 9,700 MT of pork.
In addition to the weekly report, the USDA announced several more solid sales in the overnight system. 136,000 MT of beans were sold to China for the 2020/21 crop year, and 123,000 MT of Sorghum was sold, also to China. Of that, 60,000 MT is for the current crop year and 63,000 for next.
The grain and soy markets are not the only ones to look a bit weary as we move into weeks end. This morning we find metals and energies under pressure, financial instruments are higher as is the dollar, but only fractionally, and equities are under pressure. For those final two, for the week, the dollar is down 60 points, but the S&P 500 is still nearly 70 points higher and on track to record another new high weekly close.
