Courtesy of Uncle Sam, we have all sorts of numbers to digest this morning. First up, we have the yield and supply-demand reports from the Ag Forum, which came in as follows; The trend line corn yield was pegged at 179.5 bpa. If realized, this would set a new record by nearly 3 bpa and 7.5 bushels above last year. Using the acreage numbers released yesterday, this would equate to record production (just barely) of 15.15 billion bushels and result in a carryout of 1.552 billion, an increase of only 50 million versus this year. Soybeans yields were pegged at 50.8 bpa, which would 6/10th higher than last year but still shy of the 52 bushels yield that was reached in the 2016/17 crop year. Regardless, this is projected to produce a record 4.525 billion bushels, but because of expected strong demand, it would result in an ending stocks increase of just 25 million bushels to 145 million. Wheat yields are projected to actually drop 6/10th of a bushel from last year, dipping to 49.1 bpa, producing a total crop of 1.827 billion bushels. If correct, this would result in ending stocks slipping down to 698 million bushels, which would be the lowest level witnessed since the 2013/14 crop year. In a nutshell, assuming no significant weather issues in the months ahead, all of these numbers would be viewed as price supportive but debatable as to painting a picture for much, if any, higher prices than current.
While all within the range of expectations, weekly export sales did show quite a bit of slippage. Beginning with corn, for the week ending February 11th, we sold 999,200 MT or 39.3 million bushels. This was 31% below that previous week and 67% under the 4-week average. Mexico was the top purchaser with 226.5k MT, followed by Costa Rica, buying 183.3k, and then Guatemala for 129.6k. There were sales of 182.6k MT for the 2021/22 crop year. Beans sales were down 43% for the week and 53% from the 4-week average coming through at 455,900 MT, or 16.7 million bushels. At the top of the list was Indonesia at 92.9k MT, followed by the Netherlands with 85.7k, and then Mexico at 71k. There were also sales of 168k MT for 2021/22. Current crop year wheat sales came in at 399,100 MT or 14.7 million bushels. This was 33% under the prior week and 18% below the 4-week average. Nigeria was the best buyer with 138k MT, followed by China with 131.7k, and then South Korea taking 85.5k. There were also sales of 214.4k MT for the 2021/22 crop year.
While we have still not left the current price parameters grain and soy markets have been contained within, we are on track to post higher weekly closes all around. If we wrapped up trade right now, spot corn would have gained 10-cents, soybeans would be up 8-cents, but the gold star for the biggest gain would be awarded to wheat. Both Chicago and KC futures sit 23-cents higher. All that said, even with this strength, it was not enough to keep the weekly stochastic on the combination chart from slipping just a bit further. As I commented earlier this week, this could be a sign that unless we find a new bullish input, we may have exhausted this move for the time being at least.
