Bulls in the grain and soy markets marched into this final week of February with quite a bit of swager, and during the first few sessions, were able to push values to the highest point in weeks and years for some new crop months. Still, alas, they appear to be scampering home with their collective tails tucked between their legs. That said, after two days of pretty intense selling, all is not lost, as if we closed right now, most will record higher weekly closes. Nearby corn is currently up 6-cents for the week, beans are 8-cents higher, and Chicago wheat is up 9-cents, and KC up 1. It is worth pointing out that corn remains on track to post the seventh month in a row of higher closes and in beans the streak extends to nine months.
For those of you who just cannot wait to begin hearing about crop updates for the Northern Hemisphere, France AgriMer is ready to oblige. The report that spring barley planting in France has reached 20% complete, which is 8% behind the pace a year ago. They rate the winter barley crop 83% good/excellent, which is 14% better than last year, and 87% of the soft wheat is rated good/excellent compared with 64% last year.
The International Grain Council obviously believes that the global wheat crop is looking better as a whole, as they have increased estimates in the latest update. They are now projecting production of 773 MMT, which was an increase of 5 MMT. The largest increases were noted in Russia, up 900,000 MT, Kazakhstan, up 1.9 MMT, and Australia, where they bumped the estimate 2.1 MMT. It is worth noting that the figures for Australia are more than double last year.
Yesterday, Chinese officials reiterated their intentions to boost corn production this year as they attempt to bolster food security. The ag ministry stated that the goal is to boost the area planted by 667,000 hectares, or 1.6 million acres. In the greater scheme of things, not a massive boost, but I guess every little bit helps when you are a net importer. The also reported incidences of a new variant of African Swine Fever had been detected.
That is not the only place that African Swine Fever has reared its ugly head again. The Western Cape region of South Africa has reported an outbreak on two small farms, which is not the first for that nation as outbreaks in several other provinces have also been reported.
Looking over at the macros as we finish up the month, spot crude oil, both WTI and Brent are on track to close above $60 a barrel for the first time since December of 2019. Gold is down nearly $90 and set to close at the lowest level since May of last year. 10-year notes are sharply lower (higher rates) and on track to close at the lowest level since January last year. The U.S. Dollar is fractionally higher for the month, and the S&P 500 remains on track to record a new record high monthly close.
