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With just a few more hours to wrap up this week and month, I am unsure if we are looking at a glass-half-full scenario or half-empty.  Granted, I realize there are some of you who would suggest that I would not recognize a half-full glass in any circumstance. While I admit, I have earned the moniker Hue-Bear, as the good book says, for everything, there is a season, and we have certainly been in the season of the bull.  That said, after seeing just about every contract of corn, beans, and wheat extended into new highs earlier this week, most are now hovering towards the lower end of their respective ranges, and some even trading lower for the week.   July corn is currently up 12-cents for the week but is 37-cents down from its high.  December corn is 50-cents down from its high and sits right at 10-cents lower for the week.

The performance in beans is even a bit more disconcerting.  July beans are now 24-cents lower for the week and 82-cents off the highs, with November beans now down 27-cents for the week and 72-cents down from the highs.  Interestingly enough, July wheat is still up 8-cents for the week but is sitting 47-cents off of the high, which by the way, was the highest point traded for a July contract since 2013.

It would be far too premature to suggest that the performance this week marked the end of the bull journey for these markets, particularly with the most critical growing months ahead of us in the Northern hemisphere, but that said, do not offhandedly dismiss it either.  These are futures markets, and no doubt the some of the bullish excitement we witnessed earlier this week was an attempt to factor in some risk-premium.  Keep in mind that, as I have commented many a time, bull markets will almost always peak when the news appears to be the most friendly.

We do have a few other scraps of news to present as we wrap up the week.  Crop conditions in France have slipped a bit, but they have made huge strides with corn planting.  AgriMer says that 74% of the corn is now in the ground, which is an increase of more than 30% in the past week and moves them ahead of the average pace of 68%.  Winter barley conditions slipped 4% to 77% good/excellent, durum wheat was down 8% to 69%, and soft wheat slipped 4% but is still 81% good/excellent.

Somewhat curiously, there has been little reported concerning the African Swine Fever problems in China, not that they were every terribly chatty about it, to begin with.  That said, the USDA attaché to China posted that they do not believe hog number will rebound at least into the middle of this year IF the ASF outbreak is brought under control. It may be hazardous to try and read between the lines here, but one might ask what will happen if they DON’T get the outbreak under control?

Looking at the macros as we close in on week’s end, we find the crude oil up $1.50 for the week, gold down $7 an ounce, 10-year notes down 14 points, the S&P 500 up nearly 10 points, and on track for another new record high weekly/monthly close and after three weeks in a row of losses, the U.S. Dollar is unchanged.