It would appear that Mexico is on a fall buying spree as they led purchases of corn and wheat last week, not to mention were in overnight for more corn and beans. For the week ending September 30th, we sold a net 1,265,100 MT or 49.8 million bushels of corn. Mexico represented 64% of that total with 801.4k MT. Colombia came in at second place, taking 192.5k, and then Honduras in for 96.8k. In the daily system this morning, the USDA reports that Mexico purchased another 314,256 MT of corn overnight. If nothing else, bean sales are consistent as we sold 1,041,900 MT or 38.3 million bushels. As expected, China was the top purchaser with 671.3k MT or 65% of the total, followed by Indonesia and Germany, purchasing 128.4k and 86.3k, respectively. In addition to this, Mexico showed up overnight to purchase 261,264 MT, which will show up in next weeks’ numbers. Wheat sales improved 15% for the week, coming through at 333,200 MT or 12.2 million bushels. Mexico was the primary buyer with 89.1k MT, followed by South Korea taking 82.7k and the Philippines with 69.3k. In the meats, beef sales were down 3% at 15,600 MT, and pork sales for 2021 dropped 48%, coming in at 22,100 MT, but net sales for 2021/22 were reported at 529,300 MT.
There are still a few in the trade, feeling the sting of the last USDA numbers, but it is time to prep for the next release scheduled for Tuesday the 12th. Before we get to the pre-report estimate, though, we have an update from Conab for the 2021/22 Brazilian crops. They are now projecting corn acreage of 20.865 million hectares with a potential crop size of 116.31 MMT. Last year they produced 85.75 MMT. In beans, they expect that farmers will plant 39.92 million hectares, potentially producing a crop of 140.75 MMT. This would, of course, set another new record and compares with last year’s output of 135.9 MMT. Wheat production is projected to be 8.19 MMT, compared to 6.23, and cotton at 2.68 MMT versus 2.36.
As far as next week’s numbers from Uncle Sam, here are the estimates I have seen thus far; Domestic corn production is expected to come through at 14.973 billion bushels from an average yield of 176 bpa. 2022 carryout is pegged at 1.432 billion. In beans, the average estimate for production is 4.415 billion from a yield of 51.1 bpa. Carryout is projected to reach back to 300 million bushels. Wheat carryout is projected to come through at 576 million. Global ending stocks are expected to come through at 298.76 MMT of corn, 100.72 MMT beans, and 280.82 MMT wheat.
Finally, a little better news on the jobs data as weekly initial unemployment claims dropped 38,000 to 326,000. Economists were expecting to see a decline of 17,000. With the Delta variant seemingly on the decline, hopefully, we will see this number continue to decline as well.
Over in the macros, we have energies and metals and financial instruments lower, the dollar flat to lower, and equities strong.