Free Commentary

By: Dan Hueber –

The grain and soy markets continue to suffer from a persistent case of over-supply-orrhea and unfortunately the only medical practitioner that could be found to implement treatment have been a few medieval Barber Surgeons.   Even more unfortunate is the fact that the only treatment that they have ever mastered was blood-letting and more often than not will drain the patient dry before they ever recuperate, but each day they appear to be siphoning just a bit more life out of the remaining bulls.  Next thing you know they will be pulling the leaches out to finish the job.  In all reality, the additional draining overnight has not pressed prices much if any lower for the move and it would appear that we should be very close to exhausting even the bears, but there is nothing in the action to suggest that we have the energy for a turn around just yet.  It will undoubtedly require some type of blood infusion and while the weekly export sales report issued this morning appears to be the right kind of Rx, it would seem the next possible chance for something more substantial will be on the report at the end of next week.  Let’s just hope it is not the wrong blood type that is delivered.

As far as the sales, we witnessed a solid week for all three major commodities.  For the week ending March 16th we sold 1,347,000 MT or 53.04 million bushels of corn. This was 11% ahead of last week and 59% ahead of the 4-week average.  The top sales were made to South Korea with 593.7k MT, followed by Japan with 297k and Mexico at 162.7k.  Certainly, our most consistent customers.  Soybeans sales were 57% ahead of last week and 72% ahead of the 4-week average coming in at 738,200 MT or 27.13 million bushels. Surprise, surprise, China was the top purchaser with another 194.2k MT, followed by the Netherlands at 143.3k and unknown destinations at 119.7k. Keep in mind that we have now reached 98.3% of the USDA projection with 24 weeks left in the year. Wheat numbers were solid as well at 418,500 MT or 15.38 million bushels.  This number was 58% above last week and 17% ahead of the 4-week average.  Top buyers were Japan with 122.4k MT, followed by Algeria with 120k and Mexico purchasing 69.1k.  Probably the biggest disappointment for last week were the sales in soy products which were both sharply lower.

It is just over a week until we see the official Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks estimates and we published our estimate yesterday afternoon.  We are looking for corn acreage to come in at 90.3 million and beans at 88 million.  For grains stock we estimate that the March 1st inventory of corn stood at 8.492 billion, beans at 1.627 and wheat at 1.617.  We shall report on other survey results as they come in.