Free Commentary

By: Dan Hueber –

It would appear that summer like temperatures will finally be moving into the eastern portions of the corn belt but along with this comes additional moisture.  For many, fields will have never had a great opportunity to become fit, which would suggest that there will be a respectable portion of the corn crop that will be planted into less than ideal soil conditions.  While I would not expect the USDA to make any significant yield adjustment for the report to be released later this morning, we should at least now have the official baseline from which to add or subtract from.

Once again, here are pre-report survey estimates, these curtesy of the DJ/WSJ.  Projected 2017 US corn production at 14.204 billion, beans 4.246 billion and all wheat 1.920.  Ending stock for 2016/17 at 2.327 billion corn, 439 million beans, and 1.162 billion wheat.  Then for 2017/18 projected ending stocks of 2.111 billion corn, 572 million beans, and 974 million wheat.

It was also report day in China, and the agricultural ministry released its first estimates for 2017.  Corn acreage is projected to fall 2.5% with production then estimated to be down 2.9%.  Note that this would be the second year in a row of decline and would be a 6% acreage reduction from 2015/16 and 5% production cut.  Soybeans acreage, in turn, was estimated to increase 10.34% over last year with production projected to increase 12.17%.  Keep in mind that a 12% increase in production if realized would equate to just 1.53 MMT or a pretty good week of export sales.

There is not really much else to focus on this morning in the ag world.  Even the high-flying cattle market now appears to have lost its allure. For now, we need to remain patient and see if there will be anything interesting once the word of gov. released.