By: Dan Hueber –
On the way home last evening I noticed a number of combines now switched back over the soybean harvest and gauging from the overnight action in beans, it would appear that must be prevalent across the grain belt. The two cargoes of beans to China that were revealed on the inspections report Monday is but a distant memory at this point and as a trader mused overnight, “who knows, the duty could go up to 50% by the time the boat arrives” suggesting it just is not worth the risk buying U.S. beans with the trade tensions still on red alert.
As feared, weekly export sales have given us nothing to cheer about this morning for corn and beans, but at least wheat perked up a bit. Beginning with the best, for the week ending October 11th we sold 476,000 MT or 17.49 million bushels of wheat. This was 40% higher than the previous week and right at the 4-week average. The top purchaser was Bangladesh at 180k MT, followed by Japan with 78.7k and then Unknown destinations taking 76.1k. Corn unfortunately recorded a marketing year low with sales of 382,500 MT or 15.06 million bushels. The trade was expecting something in the 800k to 1.25 MMT range. This was 62% below last week and 72% under the 4-week average. Mexico is still the top purchaser but this last week at just 162.5k MT with Colombia at 133k and Japan at 119.6k rounding out the top three. There were reductions of 326,500 MT from Unknown. Beans also set a marketing year low at 293,600 MT or 10.79 million bushels. The trade was looking for something between 600k and 1.0 MMT. This figure was 33% below last week and 69% below the 4-week average. The top sales went to Spain with 188k MT followed by the Netherlands at 113.6k and then Mexico for 111.5k. There was a reduction of 694.4k MT via Unknown destinations.
Equity markets remain a bit jittery but have held the majority of the big rebound that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It should be pointed out that the U.S. dollar found renewed buying interest yesterday, inspired by thoughts that the Fed will continue the steady increase in rates moving forward. So far, the index has remained within ranges posted over the last several weeks, but indicators look positive. I would not suggest that has created selling in the grain/soy complex but does cast a negative psychological shadow over our markets for now.