No doubt, when they awoke this morning, the first thing on the mind of many in the ag world was the forthcoming September crop production and supply/demand report. Actually, it would appear it was on the minds of more than a few overnight as well as we have seen the recent advance in corn and beans extend once again, pushing these markets into higher highs for the advance.
Before we delve into all of that, though, I believe we should take time to remember what occurred on this date and morning nineteen years ago; The terrorist attacks carried out on the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, as well as the failed attack, reportedly headed for Washington D.C. It is incredible to think that those born in the shadow of that event are now reaching adulthood, but here we are nearly two decades hence, and I believe I speak for most Americans in saying, we will forever have etched in our minds where we were, and the sense of disbelief that we experienced as we watched the events unfold that day. Nearly 3,000 people senselessly lost their lives that day, and double that amount were injured, and it only seems appropriate that we take time to honor their memory. I know I have mentioned it previously, but if you have never had the opportunity to visit the 9/11 memorial in New York City, it is well worth your time to do so.
As we are all aware, we are living in an era of extreme unrest, hostility towards others, and a political climate that is divisive and toxic at best. Against that backdrop, I think it appropriate to read the words that President George W. Bush spoke that evening as a reminder that we as Americans, are at our finest when we work together to aid all the citizens we live with in this great nation.
“Good evening. Today, our fellow citizens, our way of life, our very freedom came under attack in a series of deliberate and deadly terrorist acts. The victims were in airplanes, or in their offices; secretaries, businessmen and women, military and federal workers; moms and dads, friends, and neighbors. Thousands of lives were suddenly ended by evil, despicable acts of terror.
The pictures of airplanes flying into buildings, fires burning, huge structures collapsing, have filled us with disbelief, terrible sadness, and a quiet, unyielding anger. These acts of mass murder were intended to frighten our nation into chaos and retreat. But they have failed; our country is strong.
A great people has been moved to defend a great nation. Terrorist attacks can shake the foundations of our biggest buildings, but they cannot touch the foundation of America. These acts shattered steel, but they cannot dent the steel of American resolve.
America was targeted for attack because we’re the brightest beacon for freedom and opportunity in the world. And no one will keep that light from shining.
Today, our nation saw evil, the very worst of human nature. And we responded with the best of America — with the daring of our rescue workers, with the caring for strangers and neighbors who came to give blood and help in any way they could.
Immediately following the first attack, I implemented our government’s emergency response plans. Our military is powerful, and it’s prepared. Our emergency teams are working in New York City and Washington, D.C. to help with local rescue efforts.
Our first priority is to get help to those who have been injured, and to take every precaution to protect our citizens at home and around the world from further attacks.
The functions of our government continue without interruption. Federal agencies in Washington which had to be evacuated today are reopening for essential personnel tonight, and will be open for business tomorrow. Our financial institutions remain strong, and the American economy will be open for business, as well.
The search is underway for those who are behind these evil acts. I’ve directed the full resources of our intelligence and law enforcement communities to find those responsible and to bring them to justice. We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them.
I appreciate so very much the members of Congress who have joined me in strongly condemning these attacks. And on behalf of the American people, I thank the many world leaders who have called to offer their condolences and assistance.
America and our friends and allies join with all those who want peace and security in the world, and we stand together to win the war against terrorism. Tonight, I ask for your prayers for all those who grieve, for the children whose worlds have been shattered, for all whose sense of safety and security has been threatened. And I pray they will be comforted by a power greater than any of us, spoken through the ages in Psalm 23: “Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me.”
This is a day when all Americans from every walk of life unite in our resolve for justice and peace. America has stood down enemies before, and we will do so this time. None of us will ever forget this day. Yet, we go forward to defend freedom and all that is good and just in our world.
Thank you. Good night, and God bless America.” President George W. Bush
Now back to the business of today. Weekly export sales were released this morning, and as expected, quite large numbers were reported for corn and beans and especially the latter. I might as well begin with wheat, as it would be pretty anticlimactic to include it at the end. For the week ending September 3rd, we sold 484,400 MT or 17.8 million bushels of that commodity. This was 17% below last week and 14% below the 4-week average. The top purchaser was the Philippines with 123.1k MT, followed by Japan at 116.5k and then Mexico taking 85.5k. Corn sales came in towards the upper end of expectations, with a total of 1,823,300 MT or 71.8 million bushels. China accounted for 65% of these with purchases of 1.195 MMT, followed by Japan with 255.9k and then Mexico at 215k. It should be noted that 1.25 MMT were carried over from the 2019/20 crop year. Finally, beans sales were through the roof, with a total of 3,161,800 MT or 116.2 million bushels. 50% of this total or 1,592,900 MT, went to China, followed by unknown destinations accounting for 926k and then Mexico with 272.2k. 2.54 MMT were carried forward to the new crop year. Looking across the other commodities, we find that China purchased 86k MT of sorghum, 126,700 RB of cotton, 249,200 MT of whole cattle hides, 1,200 MT of beef, and 8,300 MT of pork.
To round out the week of good sales news, the USDA reported this morning that China has purchased another 262,000 MT of beans, and 222,000 were sold to unknown destinations.
Of course, the numbers we have all been waiting for will be released tomorrow at 11:00 CST. Once again, here are trade survey estimates to set the stage; For corn, the average estimate for yield came through at 178.3 bpa (-3.5 from Aug.), giving us a total production estimate of 14.89 billion bushels. The 2019/20 carryout estimate stands at 2.234 billion and 2020/21, 2.456 billion. The average bean yield estimate is 51.8 (-1.5 from Aug.), with the estimated production coming through at 4.294 billion. 2019/20 carryout is expected to slip to 603 million bushels and the 2020/21 number down to 467 million. The 2020/21 wheat carryout is expected to change little at 925.5 million. Looking at the world ending stocks, corn for 2019/20 is expected to total 310.9 MMT and for 2020/21, 311.11. Beans for the 19/20 at 95.7 and 20/21, 93.11, and finally wheat in 19/20 at 300.46, the rising to 315.81 in 20/21.